Critical Situation In Iraq

What all of this comes down to is the Strong leader Binding Phase, which we saw in the posting by that name on this blog, and also "Another View On Syria" and " A Few Words About Libya", also on this blog.

The First World War began a hundred years ago this summer, and it's repercussions are still echoing across the generations.

When a diverse country is put together artificially, it requires an extended period of time being ruled by a strong leader before it is ready to be a democracy. The breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire after the First World War led to the creation of new nations, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, by cobbling together various peoples in their territories.

As you may notice, neither country lasted until the present. One complication of the decline of Communism in eastern Europe is that it was all that was holding these two artificial countries together. The Czechs and Slovaks of Czechoslovakia separated peaceably, but that was unfortunately not the case with Yugoslavia. Poland was an old country that was brought back into being after the First World War. It is still with us today because, unlike the other two, it was a natural country that was not put together artificially.

Besides the Austro-Hungarian Empire there was another empire that was dismantled after the First World War, as the price to pay for being on the wrong side. The territory of the Ottoman Empire was divided up into more artificial countries, among them are Iraq and Syria.

Just as with the former territories of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, these are diverse countries that were put together artificially. The only way that they can hold together is under the authority of a strong leader, and it is going to stay that way for quite some time. It might be logical to consider a dismemberment of both countries, but if they are going to stay intact then a liberal western-style democracy is out of the question.

I wrote "A Few Words About Libya" in 2011, just after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, and today you can see what I mean in expressing skepticism about the country being a democracy. Libya consists of two sides, the Benghazi and the Tripoli sides, and power has alternated between the two. King Idris, who Gaddafi overthrew in 1969, was from the Benghazi side. Gaddafi was from the Tripoli side, and that always his power base. The rebellion against Gaddafi began in Benghazi, and brought power back to that side. If Libya is to remain a united country, it needs much more time together under a strong leader before looking toward democracy.

As I have written several times here, as sectarian violence mounted in Iraq after it had been made into a democracy, the present government simply does not have control of the country like Saddam did. Saddam was a dictator because that is what was required to hold a country together that was drawn on the map by colonial officials, but which contained a religious mix of Shiite and Sunni Muslims and also an ethnic mix of Arabs and Kurds. Making it into a democracy just interrupted the Strong Leader Binding Phase, which is so important.

UNDERSTANDING IS

To understand the force that has emerged in Iraq and Syria known as IS, we must go back to what I term "The Strong Leader Binding Phase" as described in the posting by that name on this blog.

When a country is put together artificially, usually the remnants of a defunct empire, it absolutely must undergo a long period of time under a strong leader before it is ready to be a democracy. I have been writing about this for years.

We in the west often reflexively support a popular uprising against a dictator ruling such an artificial state without taking The Strong Leader Binding Phase into consideration. I have posted here several times that, now that we have made Iraq into a democracy, the government simply does not have the country under control in the way that Saddam did, and it is near to civil war.

Now, with the rise if IS, you can see just what I mean. The previous government that I wrote lacked the necessary control of the country has been removed.

The emergence of IS is the direct result of the removal of Saddam Hussein and the weakening of Bashar Assad, of neighboring Syria, by the uprising there. Both are artificially constructed countries from the remnants of the Ottoman Empire that require a long period in "The Strong Leader Binding Phase". The rise of IS is a direct consequence of the interruption of that vitally necessary phase in both countries.

Exactly the same can be said of Libya, as we saw in "A Few Words About Libya". The rule of Moammar Gaddafi represented it's Strong Leader Binding Phase and the country was not ready to have it interrupted, at least not if Libya is going to stay as one whole.

To understand why IS appeals to, and is able to recruit, volunteers from the west, it is necessary to understand the French Foreign Legion.

It used to be an organization that appealed to those with a thirst for adventure, or who are bored by the nine-to-five routine of daily life. It was ideal for military veterans who did not adjust well to civilian life. It offered the possibility of climbing in rank. It was surely the most fabled and romanticized military unit in the world.

IS has positioned itself as the new French Foreign Legion.