A Few Words About Libya

(Note-This was originally written after the death of Moammar Gaddafi in late 2011).

What does the future hold for this country now that Moammar Gaddafi is dead? Let's consider the posting on this blog a while back, "The Strong Leader binding Phase", nowhere does this apply more today than in Libya. The Strong Leader Binding Phase is simply the extended period of time in which a diverse country must be ruled by a strong leader, of some description, before it can become a functioning democracy.

Many in the west would like to see Libya now become a democracy. But it most likely requires a strong leader, like Gaddafi or the king which preceded him, just to hold the country together.

Libya is a sparsely-populated country with two major cities, Tripoli in the west and Benghazi in the east. It would be quite difficult at this time for a democratically-elected president or prime minister to hold those two cities together into one country.

Libya's two major cities have historically represented two rival centers of power. The power base of King Idris, who Gaddafi overthrew to take power, was in Benghazi and the east. The power center of Gaddafi was in Tripoli and the west. The rebels who have now overthrown Gaddafi have their power base, once again, in the eastern part of the country, and early on made Benghazi their capital city.

This does not mean that a country with rival cities cannot be a working democracy. But it does require quite a bit of time together under a strong leader first. It remains to be seen whether Libya has completed this phase, they way the rebels handled Gaddafi after capturing him does not bode well.

There is another way of looking at the so-called "Arab Spring" movement, which has been underway for nearly a year now. It could also be looked at as the "African Spring". The Arab Spring movement to overthrow unwanted dictators was concentrated in six countries. Three of those countries are in Africa, and the other three in Asia.

As of this writing, the three Arab Spring movements which have succeeded in overthrowing their governments are the three which are geographically in Africa. They are the neighbors Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

The three which have not succeeded in overthrowing their governments, at least not yet, are the three in Asia: Syria, Yemen and, Bahrain. The one of these that has come the closest to succeeding is the one closest to Africa, Yemen. It's leader, Saleh, was seriously wounded in an explosion. The one in which the uprising seems to have been less-than-successful is the one furthest from Africa, Bahrain.

There were early demonstrations in Morocco, in Africa, and in Saudi Arabia, in Asia, but these did not develop into full-scale uprisings.

If we look at this as the "African Spring", we can include the uprising in Ivory Coast against Laurent Gbagbo. It followed a pattern very similar to that in the three Arab countries in Africa where dictators were removed. The successful partition of Sudan this year also fits in with this African Spring view.

One final thought. Years ago, Nicolae Ceausescu of Romania visited Moammar Gaddafi in Libya. Later, during the autumn 1989 uprisings in eastern Europe which was the European version of the Arab Spring, Ceausescu was overthrown and executed. He was caught trying to escape. Romania was one of the last countries to have it's government overthrown in that movement.

Who would have ever thought at the time that Gaddafi would end in just about exactly the same pattern of events?